Bimodal distribution of winners and losers in AI
12-03-2025
- https://web.archive.org/web/20230717152253/https://milkyeggs.com/technology/programmer-salaries-in-the-age-of-llms/
- https://danluu.com/bimodal-compensation/
- https://www.geeklawblog.com/2016/03/lawyers-and-ai-saying-susskind-is-wrong.html
- https://www.amazon.com/Average-Is-Over-Powering-Stagnation/dp/0525953736
The returns to factual knowledge are falling, continuing a trend that started with databases, search engines and Wikipedia. It is no longer so profitable to be a lawyer who knows a large amount of accumulated case law. Instead, the skills of synthesis and persuasion are more critical for success.
More generally, the farther such technologies advance, the more existing technical professions will undergo a sort of “paralegalization” and bifurcation of the talent distribution.
Athletes, in the broad sense of that term, may thus rise in status. Sculpture and dance might gain on writing in cultural import and creativity. Counterintuitively, if you wanted our culture to become more real and visceral in terms of what commands audience attention and inspiration, perhaps the bots are exactly what you’ve been looking for.
Quick thoughts:
- focus-to-grow, data-informed, get better by measuring